Changes in the metastability of the Southern Hemisphere 500-hPa circulation are examined using both cluster analysis techniques and split-flow blocking indices. The cluster methodology is a purely data-driven approach for parameterization whereby a multiscale approximation to nonstationary dynamical processes is achieved through optimal sequences of locally stationary fast vector autoregressive factor (VARX) processes and some slow (or persistent) hidden process switching between them. Comparison is made with blocking indices commonly used in weather forecasting and climate analysis to identify dynamically relevant metastable regimes in the 500-hPa circulation in both reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) datasets. The analysis characterizes the metastable regime in both reanalysis and model datasets prior to 1978 as positive and negative phases of a hemispheric midlatitude blocking state with the southern annular mode (SAM) associated with a transition state. Post-1978, the SAM emerges as a true metastable state replacing the negative phase of the hemispheric blocking pattern. The hidden state frequency of occurrences exhibits strong trends. The blocking pattern dominates in the early 1980s, and then gradually decreases. There is a corresponding increase in the SAM frequency of occurrence. This trend is largely evident in the reanalysis summer and spring but was not evident in the AMIP dataset. Further comparison with the split-flow blocking indices reveals a superficial correspondence between the cluster hidden state frequency of occurrences and split-flow indices. Examination of composite states shows that the blocking indices capture splitting of the zonal flow whereas the cluster composites reflect coherent block formation. Differences in blocking climatologies from the respective methods are discussed.
wants to open a franchise, and not a very simple thing, think like advertisement said that money is whimsical sit shop. Open shop also need a lot of attention.
the franchise success rate: To study other same system stores operating conditions, if a franchise system closed shop situation, must be careful; if a franchise system there are a number of closed shop situation, whether it is the individual business failures, or what is the reason should be considered to give up. Because a mature system needs a long time to experience the accumulation and management system of continuous improvement, in the normal operation of the situation, the situation is not close shop.
added: if the shop to join the threshold to join the threshold of a franchise is very low, there is no requirement, as long as the payment of fees will be added and joined the business, this situation must think twice, in fact it basically can be said to be a name to sell business, and have almost no allies professional training and management, technology, personnel and financial support.
jiamengfei is appropriate: jiamengfei is one of the most important elements of entrepreneurial projects, has great influence on the entrepreneurs to join the determination. Join the cost is reasonable, the first to see the franchise business and management system is sound, but also to see the join conditions provided by the enterprise, including the hardware and software support, the most important thing is to look at the rate of return on investment, referring to other stores returns, if you think this system stores the rate of return to their own requirements, so it is reasonable to join the cost. Usually each affiliate has its own franchise fee standards, under normal circumstances can not bargain.